Sunday, November 02, 2008

Who Are The Undecided Voters, and Should We Care?

According to polls (which, after 2004, I am inclined to view with skepticism), the number of undecided voters is dwindling. But there still are some.

The question is: should we really care who they are?

We can speculate of course, and we all have our own theories. Mine, much less informed than the people paid to write these types of commentaries, is this:

Undecided voters are people who don't think that there is any point to voting. They are also people who are cynical enough that they think there really isn't a demonstrable difference between the candidates. Stuffed in that small percentage are also the people who are still waiting to hear how the candidates will deal with a very real problem they are having. I expect there are a few who are conflicted because they feel a strong compulsion to vote for a woman (Sarah Palin), but like Obama's message better than McCain's. I expect there are a slim number of Republicans who are unhappy with the McCain-Palin ticket but don't want to vote for a Democrat. And there are likely a few people who want to vote Democrat but have a difficult time voting for a black man.

We can ask: how big an impact will that have on this election? It is reasonable to expect that a percentage of undecided voters will end up just not going to the polls. And there is really no way to figure out which candidate those undecided voters will select when faced with the choice in the privacy of the voting booth.

But the real question is -- is it worth it for the candidates to try figure out what those people are waiting for? Or will voter turnout be so large that a small percentage of undecides this year will not decide the election?

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